New CGSR report recommends changes to nuclear strategy

For the first time in its nuclear history, the United States faces two major power adversaries — Russia and China — armed with large and diverse nuclear forces. Although not formally allied, the pair have established a strategic partnership.

This evolving landscape prompts two key questions: In light of the two-peer (Russia and China) problem, are changes to U.S. nuclear deterrence strategy required to ensure that deterrence remains effective? Secondly, are changes to the U.S. practice of nuclear deterrence required?

In response to these questions, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) recently published “China’s Emergence as a Second Nuclear Peer: Implications for U.S. Nuclear Deterrence Strategy,” a paper that defines the problem, outlines its implications and provides recommendations in the areas of nuclear deterrence, U.S. strategic nuclear forces, hedging, extended deterrence and survivability.

The report captures the perspectives of an expert bipartisan study group convened by CGSR and chaired by CGSR Director Brad Roberts. The group, which met regularly over the first half of 2022, was comprised of 18 members spanning 12 institutions from government, think tanks and academia.

“This paper will go a long way toward helping people think through this challenge and the next steps to be taken,” said Mike Albertson, CGSR deputy director and a member of the study group. “As this topic came up frequently at CGSR workshops, the need for some strategic thinking was clearly there at very senior levels. It just required time, leadership and a well-assembled group of experts to explore all the dimensions of this emerged and emerging problem.”

CGSR hopes that the report will provoke and inform new thinking on U.S. nuclear deterrence strategy.

“The report has attracted wide attention among policy experts, government officials and military leaders. This attention extends to allies in Asia and Europe as well,” Roberts said. “We are pleased that the report has been successful in focusing attention on a major emerging challenge and in informing debate — which were our two primary motivations in forming the study group a year ago.”

The paper warns that making no changes to U.S. nuclear policy and posture would only accelerate the erosion of the security environment, as friend and foe alike conclude that the United States has lost the resolve to defend its interests and allies.

It contains approximately 60 recommendations to help U.S. leaders deal effectively with these new challenges. While the study group reached consensus on the report’s general thrust and main lines of argument, the content also maps out the group’s debate on a few areas with the hope readers will benefit from the analytical framework.

“Whether and how to respond to China’s nuclear breakout is a hard problem — it requires this sort of attention,” said Brad Clark, a member of the study group who now teaches at the National Defense University’s Eisenhower School for National Security and Resource Strategy.

“This report’s analysis, findings and recommendations are directly relevant to my seminar’s work assessing whether our nuclear modernization programs and the supporting industrial base are sufficient for 21st century strategic competition,” Clark said. “I would think it equally useful for government practitioners assessing and developing nuclear strategy and forces. It also provides a developed foundation for further work.”

CGSR publishes two monograph series, the Occasional Papers and the Livermore Papers on Global Security. They are available on the CGSR website for download here.