In the next 30 years, there is a one-in-three chance that the Hayward fault will rupture with a 6.7 magnitude or higher earthquake. Such an earthquake will cause widespread damage to structures, transportation and utilities, as well as economic and social disruption in the East Bay.
Scientists from Lawrence Livermore and Lawrence Berkeley laboratories recently modeled ground shaking from a magnitude 7.0 Hayward Fault earthquake in greater detail than ever before. This is the highest resolution earthquake simulation ever done for Northern California.
Principal investigator Artie Rodgers, a seismologist at Lawrence Livermore, said the team is working to “compute the most realistic, fully deterministic 3D ground motions for use in hazard, risk and building/structural response analysis.”
For residents of the San Francisco East Bay, the greatest seismic hazard is the Hayward Fault. As this nearly 80-mile-long fault snakes its way from just east of San Jose to San Pablo Bay, where it transitions to the Rodgers Creek Fault, it cuts through the cities of Hayward, Fremont, Oakland and Berkeley. While the Hayward Fault may not have the notoriety of the San Andreas, it is part of the same larger fault system, and according to the USGS, has a greater chance of rupturing in a large earthquake by 2043.